🎙️With Cate away this week, Dave and Mike sit down to unpack the newly released 2026 PIPA Annual Investor Sentiment Survey, now in its 12th year, and they look past the headline percentages to understand what investors are actually doing in the wake of the budget.

📊 The standout finding is on the sell side. Investor sales have climbed from 14.1% in 2024 to 16.7% last year and 18.3% this year, and the largest group of sellers had held their property for 10 to 20 years. More than half sold to an owner occupier, while just 12.4% sold to a first home buyer. Meanwhile only 27.8% plan to buy another investment property, down from 41% a year ago, and 63% of those stepping back cite the negative gearing and CGT changes.

Mike explains why the policy push toward new stock isn’t landing. Only 4.8% said the changes made them more willing to buy new, and 87% of investors lack confidence that future governments will keep tax settings predictable. Cash flow is tightening too, with 62.3% now negatively cash flowed after tax, up from around 30% in 2022. Nearly two thirds say they’ve passed on 10% or less of rising costs through rent. How long can landlords keep absorbing that before something gives?

🏡 Melbourne was named the best place to invest by a huge margin at 38.7%, even as Victoria ranked at or near the bottom for investor friendliness for a fourth straight year. With Melbourne’s decade of growth sitting at just 26%, Dave asks whether November’s state election could change the story.

The pair also play devil’s advocate on survey bias….

From investor exits and cash flow stress to Melbourne’s countercyclical appeal, this episode raises a bigger question: if investors are the voluntary suppliers of rental housing, what happens to renters when the equation stops working?

Related episodes:

Ep. 286        Is Investing in Property Still Worth It? Navigating the Shifting Property Landscape

Ep. 352        The Housing Supply Challenge – Why Australia Can’t Build Homes Fast Enough

Ep. 372        The New-Build Negative Gearing Trap – Why a Higher Rent and Bigger Tax Deduction Don’t Always Add Up to a Better Investment

Ep. 376        The Great Investor Exodus – The Budget White Elephant Sinking the Boat, Outlook for Rates & Are Boutique Apartments Luring Investors?

Ep. 378        Property Investors Pivot to Yield and Diversification, But Is It the Right Call?

Upcoming episode: #382: Buying and selling behaviours during a bear market