Welcome back to The Property Trio. Mike, Cate and Dave work through a detailed Cotality presentation Tim Lawless delivered at last month’s REBAA conference, using its data as the springboard for a wider look at where the housing cycle genuinely sits.

📊 National dwelling values have fallen for four straight months, now sitting around 2% below their March peak, with the capital city decline closer to 2.8%. Mike walks through Sydney and Melbourne’s role in leading that slide, and Cate points out how broad it has been: 97% of Sydney suburbs and 98% of Melbourne suburbs recorded falls over the latest three months, well beyond a handful of prestige pockets wobbling.

🏡 Dave presses the trio’s long standing point that there isn’t a single Australian housing market. While Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth lose momentum despite strong annual numbers, places like Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Karratha and Wagga Wagga still record growth above 19%. Could that widening gap change how investors think about chasing last year’s winners rather than this month’s momentum?

Cate explains what softer absorption means for buyers on the ground: total listings are climbing even as new listings sit below average, and auction clearance rates have slipped under 50%. She’s careful to note that leverage should buy a better asset, not excuse a mediocre one.

The conversation turns to investor demand, with Mike unpacking Tim’s warning that cyclical softness and the Budget’s tax changes could push investor activity well below average. Dave raises the harder question nobody has fully answered: if fewer private investors buy established homes, where does rental supply come from instead?

From the shape of the downturn through to listings and investor tax policy, this episode is a reminder that a single national headline says little about any individual market. As Mike, Cate and Dave note, the cycle has clearly turned, just not everywhere, and not evenly.

And….. our gold nuggets!

Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: Cate cites the other downturns and reminds listeners to keep it in perspective. “This too, shall pass”, she says. (See chart below)

Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: “Don’t just blindly look at the media. There are markets within markets.” Mike addresses structural supply problems and highlights the opportunities that exist within the market that buyers wish to transact in.

Dave Johnston’s gold nugget: This is a great period for upgraders in particular. Dave talks about an article about Operation Claw he read in the AFR recently too; fraudulent loan arrangements and purchases, and he wonders how the impact of this Federal Government attention will bode for property markets.

Related episodes:

Ep. #228 – All Things Apartments & Units Part 1 – From Boutique to High-Rise, Uncovering Opportunity, Oversupply & Lender Restrictions

Ep. #333 – Why Media Predictions About Crashes, Cliffs & Corrections Keep Getting It Wrong

Ep. #352 – The Housing Supply Challenge – Why Australia Can’t Build Homes Fast Enough

Ep. #362 – The Federal Budget Property Shake-Up – The Fall Out and Proposed Changes for Buyers, Investors, Renters, Negative Gearing and CGT

Ep. #364 – The Budget Aftershock – What Comes Next for Property Prices and Yields & What Does a ‘Perfect’ Investment Look Like Now?

Upcoming episode: #377: 7 principles of property success