🎧 In this month’s Property Trio market update, Cate and Dave unpack the latest September figures and focus on some of the leading indicators to understand what is happening across Australia’s property markets.

National property values fell 1.1% in September, with combined capital cities down 1.2% and regional markets yet again proving slightly more resilient at -0.7%. Dave and Cate note Melbourne’s monthly movement; a proportionally lesser loss than some of the other capitals, and they chat about Darwin’s continued growth and the challenges that could spell change for Darwin.

🏡 Cate pointed out the recent market peak dates for the various cities, noting that Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra all peaked in early 2022, unlike all others which peaked more recently in this current year. Despite the most recent peak for Hobart being in March 2022, the past ten years delivered a strong growth rate of 90.2%, signalling a stellar climb in the lead up to the last peak.

🏡 Rents tell an interesting story this month. House rental growth outstrips unit rental growth, and only Canberra units sit below the target inflation band. Every other metric eclipses the target inflation band, ranging from units in Sydney at 3.9% to houses in Darwin at 12%.

📊The discussion also turns to property listing statistics, and as Dave has pointed out before, listing numbers remain another crucial piece of the puzzle. Cate and Dave consider the growing number of older properties remaining on the market in the high-performance cities such as Darwin, Perth and Adelaide, and they note the rate of change of old listings this month.

“The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declined 4.7% to 80.4 in October from 84.4 in September.” Dave and Cate keep a close eye on “Time to buy a major household item” and note that the findings in these types of reports allow the Reserve Bank Board to keep a finger on the pulse in ways that are different to the rear view mirror statistics such as inflation data.

The sands are changing in more markets now, and the Trio will also keep a keen eye on Melbourne’s political scenario as the state election looms closer. There is no doubt that the next couple of months will be very interesting indeed.

🏠 Tune in to hear more!…

Resources:

o   Ep. 12: Property Cycle Management – why now is always the best time to buy if it suits your personal economy and you have a long-term property plan

o   Ep. 158: How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time

o   Ep. 164: Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid

o   Ep. 361: Are Government Property Incentives Helping Buyers or Heating the Market?

o   Ep. 364: The Budget Aftershock – What Comes Next for Property Prices and Yields & What Does a ‘Perfect’ Investment Look Like Now?

Upcoming ep: #384: Smart Mortgage Strategy Tips as Rates Hit a 15-Year High

Charts sourced from Core Logic, Westpac, and SQM