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The 2026 Federal Budget has reshaped Australia’s property landscape, and in this extended episode of The Property Trio, Cate, Dave and Mike unpack what the tax changes could mean for investors, homeowners, first home buyers and renters over the coming years.

Will established property prices continue to soften? Could rising rental yields offset the loss of negative gearing? How will investors respond, and what happens if these reforms are eventually repealed?

The Trio explores why supply remains Australia’s biggest housing challenge, how government policy has shifted investor behaviour, and why the long term consequences could stretch well beyond the property market. They discuss the likelihood of lower transaction volumes, increasing rental pressure, changing portfolio strategies, and the broader impact on household wealth, business confidence and the economy.

Cate shares on the ground observations from Melbourne’s established market, including how buyer behaviour changed immediately after the Budget announcement and why quality assets are already attracting renewed competition. Dave explains why market downturns have historically created some of the best buying opportunities, while Mike examines the economic modelling behind the reforms and questions whether the policies will achieve their intended goals.The episode also tackles the growing divide between new and established property, the risks of paying a premium for brand new dwellings, how owner occupier demand could shape future capital growth, and why strategy matters more than ever before.

Finally, the team answers the question every buyer is asking right now: should you buy, hold or wait?Whether you’re building your first portfolio, upgrading your family home or simply trying to understand how these reforms may affect your future, this episode offers balanced insights, practical guidance and thoughtful discussion to help you make informed property decisions during one of the biggest policy shifts Australia’s housing market has experienced.

A special thanks to Dave and the team at Property Planning for producing this episode. Dave has penned an article about this topic here.

And….. our gold nuggets! “For someone trying to make a decision now… buy, hold or wait…. what would you suggest they do?”

Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: “All you get from sitting on the bench is as sore bum!” Mike explains the importance of understanding the negative cashflow position of any given property before making a purchase decision, but he also sheds light on the opportunity that presents in this buyer’s market.

Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: Cashflow is everything for investors, and Cate highlights the challenges associated with picking the bottom of the market. Making sure the decision is for the long term is essential.

Dave Johnston’s gold nugget: Dave thanks our listeners for being with us on this very long episode and echo’s Mike and Cate’s thoughts on market conditions and opportunistic buying opportunities.

Related episodes:

#60: Why established properties outperform

#220: Decoding the Data Behind RBA Decisions – Property Market Impacts and the Puzzle of Rising Property Values

#352: The Housing Supply Challenge – Why Australia Can’t Build Homes Fast Enough

#364: The Budget Aftershock – What Comes Next for Property Prices and Yields & What Does a ‘Perfect’ Investment Look Like Now?

#369: The Negative Gearing Loophole Available for Established Properties that No One’s Talking About

Upcoming ep: #374 – The ultimate guide to buying and selling at the same time