🎧 In this episode of The Property Trio, Dave, Mike and Cate unpack one of the biggest questions facing Australian property buyers right now: do first home buyer incentives genuinely improve affordability, or do they simply create more competition?

Using fresh data from Cotality Australia, the trio explores the growing divide between the lower and upper ends of the property market, with affordable suburbs across Melbourne, Sydney, Queensland and regional Australia experiencing significantly stronger growth. From Melton, Werribee and Cranbourne to Logan, Ipswich and Ballarat, the discussion reveals how government policy settings are shaping buyer behaviour and concentrating demand into price brackets sitting just below first home buyer scheme caps.

The episode examines the mechanics behind these incentives and why reducing deposit hurdles can accelerate demand faster than supply can respond. Cate shares what she’s seeing on the ground in Melbourne, including emotionally charged bidding, buyers reverse engineering budgets around scheme thresholds, and the increasing pressure faced by first home buyers competing in tightly contested markets.

The conversation also explores the unintended consequences of reduced investor participation, tighter rental supply and rising rents, highlighting how affordability challenges can worsen even while access schemes are expanded.

For buyers, investors and anyone trying to understand Australia’s evolving housing market, this episode delivers a grounded and insightful discussion about policy, competition and the long term supply issues sitting underneath today’s affordability debate.

….. and our gold nuggets:

Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: For the first home buyers… now, more than ever, you need to focus on a property with great mainstream appeal.

Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: We need to solve the supply issue. Finding a way to unlock supply is critical; from bank guarantees, to R&D to other exciting innovations. We also need to invest in trades.

Dave Johnston’s gold nugget: “Whenever you are making a property decision, particularly if it is a home, make sure you are looking five to ten years down the track.”

Related episodes:

Ep. 119        How supply and demand dictates market movements – Part #1 Macro-economic forces – state of the economy, government assistance, tax, super, the wealth effect, availability of finance, market sentiment and more!

Ep. 244        Tackling Housing Affordability – Part 1: Dissecting Proposals for Housing Innovation

Ep. 246        Tackling Housing Affordability – Part 2: The Trio’s Blueprint to Foster a Healthy Property Market

Ep. 287        How Government Interventions Are Shaping the Property Market – The Real Impact & Side Effects of Property Regulations

Ep. 334        First Home Frenzy – How the 5% Deposit Scheme Will Rock the Market & Supercharge Prices for First Home Buyers, Upgraders & Investors

Upcoming ep – #362: Market Update April