🎧 In this month’s Property Trio market update, Mike, Cate, and Dave unpack the latest October market figures… and there are some interesting stats to discuss 📊

💥 Nationally, growth is still positive for every single capital city. Perth has topped the charts at 1.9% monthly growth, while Darwin, Adelaide and Brisbane remain close with 1.6%, 1.4% and 1.8% respectively. Melbourne and Sydney may not have growth to match the others, but for Melbourne in particular at 0.9%, this monthly growth is the strongest that the southern city has delivered all year. The sheer weighting of both of the largest capital cities have a bearing on national growth also.

“The pace of growth in Australian home values accelerated in October, rising by 1.1%; the fastest monthly gain since June 2023.” (Cotality)

💬 The Trio discuss the spread of value growth in each capital city. The middle and lower quartiles continue to perform strongly, even as the top end remains subdued. Could the 5% deposit guarantee, combined with stronger investor interest be the cause of this?

📈 And for the first time in a while, the combined capitals are out-starting the combined regionals. Regional WA shines with 1.8% growth for the month, some 0.7% stronger than the next, (regional QLD). Like the capitals, every single combined state/territory region exhibited positive growth for October.

🏠 Meanwhile, rents continue to show strength, with Darwin and Hobart continuing to demonstrate the strongest change in rents.

“Unit rents are rising faster than house rents across most cities.”

Pressure on rental yields is a hallmark of rising capital values, and the gross rental yields chart illustrates this well.

Vacancy rates remain low — with the tightest city at just 0.4% in Hobart and the highest vacancy rate still being a low 1.8% in Melbourne — signalling an ongoing rental crisis driven by housing shortages and a struggling construction sector.

Listing numbers are interesting – while the new listing numbers within just 3% of previous year (and 0.4% from the past five year average), it’s all listings that tell the true story. Nationally, our listing numbers are down 14.3% compared to last year, and 18.3% down compared to the past five year average. It’s easy to see why values are surging in some markets where the supply and demand imbalance has struck.

💰 Consumer sentiment tells a few surprising stories, with “a markedly more confident assessment of prospects for the economy” apparent. Several measures in the indices exhibited a strong increase in sentiment, with both the expectations of economic conditions in the next twelve months, and interest rate expectations index jumps recorded in early November.

The Trio look forward to the monthly reporting of CPI going forward, and in particular, what this will do for visibility within the Reserve Bank Board’s dashboard.

Resources:

• Ep. 12: Property Cycle Management – why now is always the best time to buy if it suits your personal economy and you have a long-term property plan
• Ep. 158: How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
• Ep. 164: Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
• Ep. 169: Houses vs units – Capital growth performance in capital cities and regions over the last 20 years and which locations have units outperformed houses and why?
• Ep. 313: The History of Property Prices After Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions

Upcoming ep: #337 – The truth behind “unlimited borrowing” through multiple trust structures (listener question)
Charts sourced from Core Logic, ABS and SQM