🎧 April delivered a tale of two markets, and in this month’s update, Mike, Cate and Dave unpack a shifting landscape that’s becoming harder to read by the week.

Sydney and Melbourne recorded notable declines, each pulling back by around 0.6% for the month. While that may sound modest, it’s significant given the weight that these two large cities carry for the national data. At the same time, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin continue to post strong growth, driven largely by investor activity targeting affordable housing markets. The Trio questions how sustainable this momentum is, particularly with proposed policy changes on the horizon which will impact investor activity.

A key theme is the growing divide between market segments. Lower-priced, investor-heavy areas have surged, but may be vulnerable if investor demand retreats. In contrast, established homes in middle and inner-ring suburbs, (particularly family homes), are expected to be tightly held, with owner-occupiers prioritising long-term security and capital gains tax-free wealth.

Rental markets remain under intense pressure. Despite forecasts suggesting only modest increases, the Trio highlights ongoing low vacancy rates and rising rents, warning that policy changes could further constrain supply and push rents higher.

Sentiment is also shifting. Buyer confidence has dropped sharply, influenced by interest rate rises, global uncertainty and pre-budget expectations. Lending data shows a recent slowdown in both investor and owner-occupier activity, signalling a more cautious market environment.

The overarching message is clear…. this is a market in transition. With policy uncertainty, economic headwinds and changing buyer behaviour, the coming months will be critical in shaping what comes next for property across Australia.

🏠 Tune in to hear more!…

Resources:

• Related eps:
  • 12: Property Cycle Management – why now is always the best time to buy if it suits your personal economy and you have a long-term property plan
  • 158: How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
  • 164: Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
  • 169: Houses vs units – Capital growth performance in capital cities and regions over the last 20 years and which locations have units outperformed houses and why?
  • 313: The History of Property Prices After Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions
• Upcoming ep: #364: Listener question – the Trio expand on the recent budget announcements.

Charts sourced from Core Logic, Westpac ABS and SQM