In this month’s Property Trio market update, Mike, Cate, and Dave unpack the latest September market figures — and there’s a lot to cover! 📊

💥 Nationally, growth is back on track, with all capital cities in positive territory. Darwin leads the charge at 1.7% monthly growth, while Perth and Brisbane have regained strong momentum since the first rate cut in February. Hobart has just ticked into positive territory, and Dave notes we’re now deep into a broad national upswing. With three rate reductions already delivered and the chance of another early next year, the Trio remain positive about 2026.

💬 Melbourne takes the spotlight as Cate shares insights from the ground that challenge the headline data. While median values suggest Melbourne is lagging, activity in the sub-$950K range is surging. This surge has been fuelled by the new deposit guarantee threshold and rising investor interest. The middle and lower quartiles are performing strongly, even as the top end remains subdued.

📈 Regional markets are holding firm, led by WA, SA and Queensland, with continued investor activity in Geelong and Ballarat. Cate reports fierce competition in Victoria’s regions, a reminder that data can miss the true pace of local markets.

🔥 Darwin dominates Cotality’s “Chart of the Month”, with double-digit growth since February, while Sydney’s blue-chip Milsons Point and Kirribilli recorded the steepest declines.

🏠 Meanwhile, rents continue to surge, with Darwin and Hobart leading gains. Vacancy rates remain critically low — just 0.4% in Hobart and 1.8% in Melbourne — signalling an ongoing rental crisis driven by housing shortages and a struggling construction sector.

🔨 Builder insolvencies remain high and trade shortages are worsening, pushing up costs and limiting new housing supply. As Mike notes, it’s still cheaper to buy established than build — and that gap isn’t closing soon.

💰 Consumer sentiment has dipped, but expectations for price growth are at a 15-year high — proof that optimism (and FOMO) are alive and well.

🎧 Tune in as the Trio decode the data, share their local insights, and explore what’s next for Australia’s property market.

Resources:

• Ep. 12: Property Cycle Management – why now is always the best time to buy if it suits your personal economy and you have a long-term property plan
• Ep. 158: How interest rate cycles have impacted the property market since 1990 when the RBA first started targeting the cash rate and some predictions on what will happen this time
• Ep. 164: Analysing regional locations – What investment principles can be gleaned from the highest performing regions in each state? Comparing capital city vs regional performance from 2003 – before and after covid
• Ep. 169: Houses vs units – Capital growth performance in capital cities and regions over the last 20 years and which locations have units outperformed houses and why?
• Ep. 313: The History of Property Prices After Rate Cuts – 40 Years of Data, Houses vs Units, Capitals vs Regions & Predictions

Upcoming ep – #333: Why Media Myths About Crashes, Cliffs & Corrections Keep Getting It Wrong 

Charts sourced from Core Logic, ABS and SQM